Kazakhs are growing enraged by the Ukraine conflict, with many believing that their ancestral homeland will be Russia’s next target. It’s no surprise that the country’s officials want to enhance ties with China, which provide lots of benefits while posing no danger to its security. It isn’t solely Kazakhstan. All Central Asian states are starting to envision a future for themselves outside of the Russian sphere of influence, and China is a country on whom these governments think they can rely. With billions of dollars pumped into the economies of the region’s five republics, Beijing has positioned itself as a guarantor of the region’s current order, a role that involves hedging towards Russia.
So we now know. While Moscow is attempting in vain to seize control over Ukraine, Xi Jinping has done all he can to extend China’s influence in Russia’s backyard. So much for Xi Jinping as well as Vladimir Putin’s renowned “friendship without bounds.”
This bond appears to be as fictitious as Xi Jinping’s grin. The result does not seem to suggest that neither party has benefited much from their business partnership. In an era of growing international separation, Russia has a powerful and eager trade partner who provides it with a source of liquidity by purchasing its energy at steep discounts. Trade between the two nations has increased dramatically since the military campaign began.
Russia’s Prime Minister Mishustin stated on Tuesday that trade between the two nations might reach 200 billion dollars in 2019, which is up from $190 billion in 2022. In accordance with Interfax, a Russian press source, Russian energy imports to China are anticipated to increase by 40% this year.
Already this year, commerce involving China and Russia has surpassed $53.8 billion, a nearly forty percent rise over the same year in 2022. While Russia focuses on security in its interactions with China, Beijing has more to do with economic growth. As a result, the relationship is more pragmatic, with one side establishing the other globally through relationships that are essentially defined in contrast to the West.
However, this is not a typical friendship. A good friend does not exploit the other’s vulnerability, as Xi Jinping clearly is doing in Central Asia with Vladimir Putin. All of this was revealed at the India-Central Asia Conference, which closed on May 19 in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, northwest China.
While Beijing strives to strengthen ties between its previous Soviet Union adjacent ones, the Chinese president and the heads of state of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan inked a declaration affirming their support for their neighbour.
This happened to be the first in-person encounter; the previous two having taken conducted over the phone. The summit marked the 31st anniversary of China’s diplomatic connection with prior Soviet republics that were traditionally under Russian authority.
Beijing has gotten increasingly involved in Central Asia in recent years, along with Moscow now preoccupied with its lengthy and ultimately futile struggle in Ukraine, China is poised to restore its dominance in the region once and for all.
The choice to conduct the gathering in Xi’an was significant. The city, once known as Chang’an, represented the eastern terminus of the old Silk Road. Today’s “Silk Roads” involve the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan motorway and the China-Tajikistan road. There is also a vital natural gas infrastructure that connects Central Asia to China. Camel trains were the mode of transportation in the distant past; today, goods trains as well as nonstop aeroplanes are the norm.
Acknowledging the enormous scope of partnership, the six nations resolved to enhance engagement in developing industries such as online commerce and the sustainable economy, which would encompass the creation of infrastructure and engineering buildings. In addition, a deal was reached to expedite the development of an international railway connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.
The volume of cross-border transport will expand dramatically, as will commerce in agricultural and animal goods. Xi asked his visitors to engage in China’s Cultural Silk Road plan to strengthen people-to-people ties.
It has been 10 years since Xi originally proposed the construction of a “Silk Road Economic Belt” at Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev University. In an unambiguous signal to the West, Xi concluded his speech by emphasising that the sovereignty, safety, independence, and protective authenticity of Central Asian countries should be maintained, their people’s choice of economic paths honoured, and their quest for peace, harmony, and tranquilly supported.
While this was interpreted as a direct shot at the West, it might also have been in response to recent claims that Russia retains control over territory in northern Kazakhstan. Last August, a contentious remark surfaced on former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s VKontakte (VK) messaging account, referring to Kazakhstan as a “fake country” and accusing its officials of genocide against Russians.
He asserted that Russia is preparing to take the next step in restoring our country’s boundaries. While Medvedev promptly removed the post, alleging feebly that the account had been compromised, the harm had been done. Medvedev’s message reminded Kazakhs that their country shares a nearly 5,000-mile frontier with Russia.
On Kazakhstan’s side, there are cities with large ethnic Russian populations, providing enough opportunity for Vladimir Putin to incite unrest by exploiting ethnic grievances, as he did in eastern Ukraine. Kazakhs are growing enraged by the Ukraine conflict, with many believing that their ancestral homeland will be Russia’s next target. It’s no surprise that the country’s officials want to enhance ties with China, which provide lots of benefits while posing no danger to its security.
It isn’t solely Kazakhstan. All Central Asian states are starting to envision a future for themselves outside of the Russian sphere of influence, and China is a country on whom these governments think they can rely. With billions of dollars pumped into the economies of the region’s five republics, Beijing has positioned itself as a guarantor of the region’s current order, a role that involves hedging towards Russia.
Central Asian republics have ventured to take many cautious but aggressive strategic steps, believing they can rely on Chinese assistance. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev officially rejected acknowledging Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine as sovereign nations in June of last year, thus denying Putin’s premise for the war.
Moscow is now helpless to block Beijing’s push into its former territory. Russia’s continuous aggressiveness towards its western neighbour has sparked active debate about decolonization among its eastern neighbours, a concept that would have been deemed taboo just a decade ago. Some in Central Asia now acknowledge that Russia’s continued dominance has had major ramifications for both politics and social life, as they have looked to China for greater autonomy.
