By Dr. D.K. Giri (Prof. International Relations, JIMMC)
The recent Quad meeting in Tokyo a week ago, sought to in a way, redefine the emerging international order. As a matter of fact, the pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, have upended the existing world order, which was characterised by US-China entente. This order was based on balance and equilibrium maintained by the US-China understanding. To recall, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, alandmark in the multilateral climate change process, was possible owing to an understanding between President Obama and Xi Jinping.
Presently, the world order is marked by a fundamental disequilibrium due to the growing rivalry between US and China and confrontation between US (NATO) and Russia. Consequently, there is a palpable decline of multilateralism, deplorable impotence of UNSC and the rise of global challenges like cyber security, climate change, terrorism, pandemics and the lack of international cooperation.
Under these circumstances, a new world order is being crafted by world powers. India has the opportunity to shape that world order by cementing India-Pacific Cooperation through geo-politico strategic instrumentslike Quad. This has to be done by countering China’s aggressive incursions in the region. Strategically, let it be realised that a multi-polar Asianot a Sino-centric India-Pacific frameworkis a prelude to a multi-polar world. India could promote the India-Pacific framework with Japan, Australia, South Korea and United States.
At the same time, India should build on its growing cooperation between New Delhi and Paris as France is a resident power in the Indian Ocean. Indo-French collaboration in the Indian Ocean could be the fulcrum for India and European Union cooperation in the region. European Union is certainly an economic giant and not a political pigmy. The divergence of opinion between India and the European Union countries has been somewhat downplayed by the visits of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of European Commission, in the last week of April 2022 and Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Germany and Denmark in the first week of the last month.
Another opportunity India should grab in the new international order is to work on providing a resilience supply chain. In the wake of Covid, the international companies experienced serious issues in dealing with China.Let us note that the economic situation in China is becoming complex. Companies are looking for alternatives. But India is not an automatic destination. There are problems in India’s domestic manufacturing which is weak and not competitive with ASEAN countries and China. For example, the garment industry, at present, cannot compete with Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, let alone Vietnam and China.
In order to enhance the market in India and the competitiveness in trade, India should conclude the ongoing FTA negotiations with the European Union. This will provide a window for India to replace China in supply chain. Remember, this window will not stay forever. Another window has been created by the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) launched under the Quad platform by the United States on 23 May 2022 by including 13 countries and with an open invitation for countries to join at any time.
New Delhi has had problems with traditional FTAs which called for reduction or elimination of tariffs. India has high tariffs whereas other countries want zero tariffs. In IPEF, there is no discussion on tariffs. It emphasises on digital trade where India has problems too such as privacy issues and data security etc. These problems however, can be gradually, fully addressed. Optimistically, IPEF should spur India to rapid action especially as New Delhi has withdrawn from RCEP – Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, to avoid Chinese domination.
Unarguably, some of the reasons for uncompetitive manufacturing include red tapes, land acquisition issues, logistics and infrastructure deficit.It is expected that IPEF will facilitate investment in infrastructure. Therefore, strategic imperatives are important to enhance economic and trade capacity. The foreign policy-makers should use the emerging be leveraged for landscape to India’s benefit. I have been maintaining that India’s foreign policy has underplayed the interface between geo-politics and economy.
In the emerging world order, how could India reposition itself by reorienting its foreign policy? We can explore the shifts in the foreign policy by raising some questions, as well as figuring on the developments that may happen. How long it will take for India to reduce its dependence on Russia? Evidently, status quo with Russia is not benefiting India. It is intriguing to notice that India is still dependent on Russia for supply of even elementary parts of technologies. At the same time, Russia has no more weapons to sell to India. Second, is India not putting a deadline for delinking with Russia? Third, is India renewing its strategy on China? The answer could not be definite.
Take serious note of Shino-Russian axis growing, not reducing in the near future. India’s emotional and historical links with Russia may not work. If, God forbid, India is invaded at the border, there is no country to directly, militarily backup and therefore, India will have to fight by itself. If Taiwan falls victim to a Chinese military aggression, vulnerability of India increases. So, it is up to the United States to pre-empt any attack on Taiwan as Washington has been proclaiming to do.
There are two perspectives on China’s growing clout. One, China manages to end the Ukraine war by persuading Russia. USA may then fall for China and go back to G-2 system of global governance. In such a scenario, India will be marginalised. The second possible scenario is that China is wary of comprehensive sanctions biting Russia’s fragile economy. China accounts for 50 per cent of treasury bills of USA. If USA withdraws these, China will be badly hit and can no longer flex its economic muscles in international politics.
Finally, what steps India should take, in order to become an effective player in the new world order. There are two complementary priorities for India. One, India has to do all it can to lift millions of its people out of poverty. Remember, the advice of the author of Realpolitik, Hans J. Morgenthau, “India cannot promote the laudable objectives in its foreign policy for the chronic poverty in the country”. Second, India should fix the target of being a ten-trillion economy sooner than later. Only the economic strength of India will back its foreign policy objectives and security imperatives.
One may add, in parenthesis, if the economy does not grow to ten-trillion or more in near future, New Delhi should make strategic military alliance with other countries to defend itself. Non-alignment or strategic autonomy,partly continued by the current regime is a non-starter, has been an utter failure hurting India’s interests in multiple ways. India will have to brace itself for the future which is likely to be disruptive and make prudent strategic choices based on energy, experience and expectations. —INFA
