The current India-America relations reflect Hamlet’s dilemma as expressed in his soliloquy in Act 3, Scene 1 of the legendary drama conceived by William Shakespeare. To quote, “To be, or not to be – that is the question; whether it is nobler in the mind to suffer…or to take arms against a sea of troubles.” This is close to India’s case vis-à-vis the Unites States. New Delhi appears to be in a continual dilemma of suffering the ‘historic relations’ with Russia, which is engaged in a mortal battle with Ukraine that disrupts the world economy and security, or embrace the United States to contain or even confront China who is breathing down India’s neck. The choice is becoming more urgent after the battle lines became sharper between the US and the West on the one hand and China and Russia on the other in the Group of 7 (G-7) Summit recently held in Japan.
Let us scan the belligerent reactions of Moscow and Beijing against G-7 Summit in Hiroshima which Prime Minister Modi also attended. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov slammed the G-7 for indulging in their “own greatness with an agenda that purported to deter Russia and China.” Likewise, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused G-7 leaders of hindering international peace and said that “the Group needed to reflect on its behavior.” Beijing was more virulent on its reaction on the host country Japan. It called the Japanese Ambassador and cautioned against the ‘smear and attack’ on China. Beijing also warned the UK in particular against the slanderand condemned the China related criticism at Hiroshima Summit.
From these reactions it is evident that Russia and China see America and its allies as their enemy. The deliberations in G-7 Summit call for and confirm such a Sino-Russian reaction. The discussion in the Summit was dominated by the war in Ukraine; Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian President, participating in it. At the same time, America’s belligerence towards Beijing, which was once an ally and whose friendship cemented the rise of China, was not echoing on its formal allies like Japan and the European Union. But the devastating war in Ukraine and the Chinese support to Russia closed their ranks. This was reflected in the united view on China taken in the Summit. It condemned the economic coercion and militarisation measures by Beijing. Furthermore, it created a new group to counter the Chinese hostile actions and coercion against other countries.
It goes without saying that Washington and Beijing are in a fierce competition for world supremacy and jostling for influences across the countries. In this, there are three elements of US strategy on China one could decipher. One is to re-establish US hegemony by cutting off China technologically. The second is to “de-risk and diversify its economy”, which means withdrawing its investments from China. The third is to surround China with allies to prepare for any military action by Beijing on any of the allies.
On the other hand, China and Russia are increasingly coming closer. Remember the “no-limits partnership” set-up on 4 February 2022. President Xi Jinping, hosting his counterpart, Vladmir Putin, at the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing:the two leaders, in a Joint Statement, declared their partnership was greater than a traditional alliance and their friendship would know “no limits”. Twenty days later Russia invaded Ukraine.
In view of the above, New Delhi must re-think its American policy. While US rivalry with China may theoretically enhance India’s geopolitical value, it does not de-risk India in relation to China. Indian observers on US-China relations have at least two points of view – one, Sino-American hostility should lend dividends to India mainly through a new security scenario and diversification of trade from China to India. The second viewpoint suggests that a breakdown between America and China would be detrimental to the world as well as India.
On the second one, the jury is still out whether a weakened or dismembered China which America and its allies would want would be catastrophic for the world including India. More so, when China is posing a systemic threat to the rule-based world order as many European countries have openly expressed.
It is true that Russia has been a dependent ally of India since 1971 Bangladesh War and America has been either hegemonic or unsteady in its dealing with India and in fact quite a few other countries. The US with all its military and economic might is not the smartest country to deal with global challenges. We have said before that Americans will create a demon and then go to fight it. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are a proof. The American story writer Ambrose Bierce humorously said, “War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography”.
That said, geopolitics is not a constant but an ever-changing process. India-American relations have not been friendly in the past but coming critically close in the recent past. Indian leadership is also partly to blame for not warming up to a large democracy and a superpower. It is Americans who offered the permanent membership of the Security Council to India but the then Indian Prime Minister, Nehru decided to forgo it in favor of China.
Democracies provide an opportunity to change policies within and across countries whereas autocracies tend to be whimsical depending on who is at the helm. India, the largest democracy, has turned in the past for friendship with autocracies like China and USSR. Democracies also give room for lobbying and creating new discourses. It is said that in a democracy every point, good or bad, has a counter-point. They also promote competitive and collective wisdom. If not anything, only for this reason that America and India, two democracies, they need to become partners. This shared interest and culture puts China as a common threat.
Let us admit that India has made all efforts in the past and currently to make peace with China, but Beijing has betrayed New Delhi time and again. New Delhi should lose no time anymore in initiating concrete security dialogues with America and its allies. Such dialogues are certainly under process, and the new security scenario particularly after G-7 Summit, is not lost on New Delhi.
Our submission is that India’s stand should be clear ad transparent on human rights, democracy, and rule-based world order while talking about Chinese and Russian actions. America needs to demonstrate its commitment to long-term partnership with countries, not just continue with a hit-and-run policy. India-America partnership based on mutual trust and interest should help usher in peace and security not only in Asia-Pacific but in the entire world.—INFA
