Beijing: As China weighs its options watching warily the simmering India-Pakistan tensions over the Pahalgam terror attack, Chinese strategic analysts say that Beijing would not like to see the frictions go out of control and become a full-blown conflict.
“I think it has become a principle and practice for China to serve as a good office since the 1999 Kargil conflict for Indo-Pakistan tensions,” a senior scholar of a prominent state-run think tank told PTI here referring to Beijing’s stand that military confrontation (during Kargil conflict) will not resolve the crisis.
“It has always been the case since then, be it the terrorist attacks on Parliament in 2001 or 2008 Bombay (Mumbai) terror raids,” the scholar, who preferred to be anonymous, said.
“This is largely because China does not want to see Indo-Pakistan tensions go out of control that would threaten regional peace and stability,” the scholar, who has worked on China, India and Pakistan relations for years, said.
“Regardless of the situation between China and India, China will maintain this position in the foreseeable future,” he said.
“I think despite the differences regarding the external influence (bilateralism vs internationalism), China’s position plus other major countries’ stance, which are largely aligned with one another, India and Pakistan will continue to rely on and leverage this situation to their advantages,” he said, adding that China’s support to Pakistan to safeguard its sovereignty and independence should be “interpreted” in this context.
“That is why a complete and fair investigation is needed,” he said referring to China’s call for swift and fair investigation to ease the tensions.
Another senior Chinese scholar on strategic affairs, Hu Shisheng, said China will do “whatever” to avert a major military confrontation between India and Pakistan.
“Since the consequence of a military war is too much for not only India and Pakistan to bear, but also too much for the region and beyond to bear, China would not allow the situation to run out of control,” Hu, director of the Institute for South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said in written response to PTI here.
“China could do whatever to help in preventing or stopping any war breaking out among the neighbouring countries. In one word, China could not tolerate a big war between her neighbours,” he said.
He also said that India may not prefer a major military confrontation considering that its trade negotiations with the US over President Donald Trump’s tariffs are at an advanced stage.
“Modi’s team aims to seize the ‘strategic opportunity period’ when the United States wields the ‘tariff stick’ against China, and attract foreign investments,” Hu said.
On what will be China’s stand if the situation escalates, Hu said firstly China will work through diplomatic channels, bilaterally, trilaterally and through groupings like SCO, BRICS, and the UN, help seek peaceful settlement between Pakistan and India and to stop the escalation.
Also “if the situation escalates, China will have to keep alert on the border regions with India in case there will some spillovers”, Hu said.
He added that Beijing would also safeguard its investment with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and “do something necessary to safeguard the national interests within Pakistan”.
Another senior Chinese strategic scholar, Prof Zhou of Beijing-based Renmin University, said it is very unlikely China will join any major military conflict between India and Pakistan.
China has called on both sides to exercise restraint but at the same time stated that as an “iron friend and all-weather strategic partner, China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns”.
However, China also hopes that both sides will remain restrained and work to de-escalate the situation, he said, adding that the overall environment does not support a war between India and Pakistan.
So far, China is guarded in its reaction and response to Pahalgam attack which it strongly condemned saying it firmly opposes all forms of terrorism and expressed sincere sympathies to the bereaved families.
Beijing’s first reaction to the attack came when Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar dialled China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on April 27 and briefed him on the latest tensions between India and Pakistan and sought Beijing’s support.
An official press release said Wang told Dar that China is closely following the post Pahalgam terror attack developments.
“Combatting terrorism is the common responsibility of all countries in the world,” Wang said but at the same time expressed Beijing’s backing Pakistan’s counter-terrorism actions.
China supports an impartial investigation as soon as possible, as the conflict does not serve the fundamental interests of either India or Pakistan, nor does it contribute to regional peace and stability, Wang said.
Subsequently, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad on May 1 followed by meeting President Asif Ali Zardari on Monday during which he said China understands “Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports its efforts to safeguard sovereignty and security interests”.
He also called on both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, meet each other halfway, properly manage differences, and jointly safeguard regional peace and stability while calling for an impartial probe, according to a press release from the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan. (PTI)
