The story of India-Pakistan relations is a tale of the proverbial one step forward two steps backwards. All depends on which way the political wind is blowing, North or South. Presently, it’s pugnacious and defiant. Who will have the last laugh?
In a ritual which is predictable Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto in keeping with his Party PPP’s position whipped dead horse Kashmir again at UN Security Council, last week. But is next outburst made India see red: “While Osama is dead, the Butcher of Gujarat lives & he is the Prime Minister of India.”.
A livid New Delhi hit back, “His comment is uncivilized, unparliamentary and abusive.” For a country that “justifies and protects” perpetrators Osama bin Laden Lakhvi, Hafiz Saeed, Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim it has no locus standing as terrorism is part of its State policy. It accused Islamabad of harbouring UN Designated 126 terrorists and 27 terror groups and mistreating religious minorities. BJP cahoots remonstrations were even louder.
Undoubtedly, the personal attack against Modi paints a disquieting picture and marks a new low in already frayed India-Pakistan ties and raises doubts whether this is mere rhetoric or signifies instability and political pressure. More so, when New Delhi is locked in an intensive stand-off with a belligerent China on its Eastern border. Either way if a besieged Islamabad is trying to shore up its domestic standing it spells trouble for South Asian stability.
Add it is the lack of any official channel to address the tension. Recall, the 2019 Pulwana attack brought both neighbours to the brink of war and only many Track II contacts between both countries security officials led to revival of the 2003 ceasefire on the Line of Control last year.
It is a moot point if temperatures will ever come down in Indo-Pak relations post J&K bifurcation into two Union Territories, J&K and Ladakh which has completely changed the dynamics of dialogue on Kashmir. For New Delhi there is now no “outstanding” issue of Kashmir except India’s claim on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which includes Gilgit-Baltistan.
Undeniably, the very foundation of Pakistan was created on “Hatred against India”. Bilwal’s grandfather Zulfiqar Bhutto called it a “thousand year war” and both countries have fought three wars & several localised conflicts with Pakistan suffering a humiliating defeat in all. Moreover, whenever it’s public demands or questions its Government, the leaders or Army Generals give them a rattle of anti-India rhetoric, and the public forgets everything.
Specially against the backdrop insecure Pakistan is facing five major challenges, political instability, Baloch insurgency, turbulences on Pakistan-Afghan border including strain in Pak-Taliban ties, increasing terror attacks from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and international marginalization due its economic distress. On the obverse it has to contend with India’s growing international stature, political stability and growing economy.
For Pakistani fed on the belief, that ‘accepting the status quo with India is defeat’, has resulted in a perceived ideological perspective that it has to be at war to stand up and be counted. This is forcing Pakistani army to take calculated military risks as a manifestation of its continued struggle which it must continue to provoke India.
Besides, due to it being a failed State a fundamentally dissatisfied Establishment seeks to increase its prestige through spread of ideology and religion in pursuit of its revisionist policies. Furthermore, India’s suspension of dialogue has reduced Pakistan’s incentive to keep peace.
For Pak Generals acquiescing to initiating a peace process with India would tantamount to not only defeating purpose of the Army, but also, fundamentally eroding the legitimacy of the Pakistani State. For the ruling troika seeped in armed tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith.
Remember, Pakistan has a history of living in denial and following a two-track policy – clandestine operations to weaken India while simultaneously appearing to seek durable peace. Each time India is attacked and it is established beyond doubt that perpetrators were either directly or indirectly linked to Pakistan, Islamabad exercises the clause of plausible deniability saying these are ‘non-state actors’ and the Pakistani State does not “support” such acts.
Questionably, does Pakistan have the appropriate diplomacy to counter Modi’s drive for Indian supremacy in the region? And do the present assertive trends of Indian foreign policy portend the likelihood of an aggressive outcome during Modi’s tenure?
As matters stand, Pakistan has got caught between a rock and hard place. The military holds the strings with a puppet Prime Minister. Alongside there is nothing to suggest that Islamabad is ready to address New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism when it is busy infiltrating and attacking Indian border posts. Nor is there any indication that it has changed its antagonistic approach to India and refuses to give up its confrontational mindset of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts.”
On its part, India’s decision not to hold talks till it delivers on terror underlines its conviction that the military cost will soon become too high for Pakistan. Islamabad needs to understand that New Delhi’s patience is wearing thin. It should realize its jihadi tactics will not take it far in its bid to be on par with India. It also underestimates India’s ability to withstand such pressures and, if necessary, retaliate with greater force.
Modi has made plain: Cross the red line and pay for it. If Pakistan wants friendly relations with India, it should abandon its adventurism on the borders, come to senses and engage diplomatically with India. Blanket denials without taking tangible action will no longer do as the world is aware of Islamabad’s diabolical agenda. Time for it to contain or eliminate terrorism.
The long-term prospects of Pakistan-India relations will be determined to a large extent by India’s strategic goals and objectives in the context of the evolving regional and global security environment. The other part of the equation would be Pakistan’s policy goals and its handling of this critical relationship.
There is definitely a strategic imperative for peace between India-Pakistan because of their status as de facto nuclear powers and the need for both to focus their energies and resources on the gigantic task of economic development necessitated by widespread poverty. Unfortunately, however, these factors alone will not be able to usher in an era of durable peace and friendship.
India needs to calibrate its Pakistan policy differently. It needs out-of-the-box thinking, an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with Islamabad. Happily, NaMo is implementing a ‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy. Pakistan must deny sanctuary to all terrorist groups that operate from its soil and handover Masood Azhar and Hafiz Saeed to India. The taste of the pudding is in the eating.
In a milieu of deep chill the way forward rests on Islamabad’s ability to take concrete steps on the issue of terrorism emitting from its soil as tolerance to terror is past its expiry date. It needs to do a lot more than just generating artificial illusions and stop terror. Only a clean break from this sordid past can lead to a revival of Indo-Pak relations. —– INFA
